Risk Index · 2026-06-13
US real-estate risk & insurance index, by metro.
13 of the 89 largest US metros rate “Very High” on FEMA's natural-hazard risk index. Below: each metro's expected annual loss, risk score, top hazards, and what it means for property insurance, the cost that's quietly breaking deals in 2026.
Exhibit 1 · Expected annual loss, top 10 metros
Natural hazards, county-wide, per yearExpected annual loss (EAL) is FEMA's modeled average-year loss from natural hazards for the metro's principal county.
Exhibit 2 · All 89 metros, ranked by composite risk
Score = national percentile, 0-100- 1Los Angeles, CAVery High · Earthquake, Riverine flood100$7.6BVery HighEarthquake, Riverine flood$7.6B
- 2Chicago, ILVery High · Tornado, Riverine flood100$2.4BVery HighTornado, Riverine flood$2.4B
- 3Houston, TXVery High · Riverine flood, Hurricane99.9$2.2BVery HighRiverine flood, Hurricane$2.2B
- 4Phoenix, AZVery High · Heat wave, Riverine flood99.9$2.2BVery HighHeat wave, Riverine flood$2.2B
- 5Riverside, CAVery High · Wildfire, Riverine flood99.9$2.3BVery HighWildfire, Riverine flood$2.3B
- 6San Diego, CAVery High · Wildfire, Earthquake99.7$1.5BVery HighWildfire, Earthquake$1.5B
- 7Dallas, TXVery High · Hail, Heat wave99.7$973MVery HighHail, Heat wave$973M
- 8San Jose, CAVery High · Earthquake, Riverine flood99.7$2.0BVery HighEarthquake, Riverine flood$2.0B
- 9Seattle, WAVery High · Earthquake, Riverine flood99.7$1.7BVery HighEarthquake, Riverine flood$1.7B
- 10Philadelphia, PAVery High · Heat wave, Riverine flood99.6$667MVery HighHeat wave, Riverine flood$667M
- 11Las Vegas, NVVery High · Heat wave, Riverine flood99.6$813MVery HighHeat wave, Riverine flood$813M
- 12Miami, FLVery High · Hurricane, Riverine flood99.6$825MVery HighHurricane, Riverine flood$825M
- 13San Francisco, CAVery High · Earthquake, Riverine flood99.5$853MVery HighEarthquake, Riverine flood$853M
- 14Fort Lauderdale, FLRelatively High · Hurricane, Riverine flood99.5$648MRelatively HighHurricane, Riverine flood$648M
- 15San Antonio, TXRelatively High · Tornado, Hail99.4$619MRelatively HighTornado, Hail$619M
- 16Memphis, TNRelatively High · Tornado, Heat wave99.4$555MRelatively HighTornado, Heat wave$555M
- 17Fresno, CARelatively High · Drought, Earthquake99.3$557MRelatively HighDrought, Earthquake$557M
- 18Fort Worth, TXRelatively High · Hail, Tornado99.1$608MRelatively HighHail, Tornado$608M
- 19Tucson, AZRelatively High · Heat wave, Wildfire99.1$531MRelatively HighHeat wave, Wildfire$531M
- 20Detroit, MIRelatively High · Strong wind, Tornado99.0$402MRelatively HighStrong wind, Tornado$402M
- 21Fort Myers, FLRelatively High · Hurricane, Coastal flood99.0$433MRelatively HighHurricane, Coastal flood$433M
- 22Bakersfield, CARelatively High · Wildfire, Heat wave98.9$417MRelatively HighWildfire, Heat wave$417M
- 23New York, NYRelatively High · Heat wave, Strong wind98.8$307MRelatively HighHeat wave, Strong wind$307M
- 24Tampa, FLRelatively High · Tornado, Hurricane98.8$495MRelatively HighTornado, Hurricane$495M
- 25Honolulu, HIRelatively High · Riverine flood, Wildfire98.8$517MRelatively HighRiverine flood, Wildfire$517M
- 26St. Louis, MORelatively High · Heat wave, Tornado98.7$359MRelatively HighHeat wave, Tornado$359M
- 27Salt Lake City, UTRelatively High · Earthquake, Wildfire98.6$622MRelatively HighEarthquake, Wildfire$622M
- 28Stockton, CARelatively High · Drought, Earthquake98.6$422MRelatively HighDrought, Earthquake$422M
- 29Charleston, SCRelatively High · Coastal flood, Hurricane98.6$500MRelatively HighCoastal flood, Hurricane$500M
- 30Portland, ORRelatively High · Earthquake, Heat wave98.5$440MRelatively HighEarthquake, Heat wave$440M
- 31Milwaukee, WIRelatively High · Tornado, Heat wave98.4$342MRelatively HighTornado, Heat wave$342M
- 32Orlando, FLRelatively High · Strong wind, Tornado98.4$418MRelatively HighStrong wind, Tornado$418M
- 33Louisville, KYRelatively High · Tornado, Riverine flood98.3$342MRelatively HighTornado, Riverine flood$342M
- 34New Orleans, LARelatively High · Hurricane, Heat wave98.3$304MRelatively HighHurricane, Heat wave$304M
- 35Minneapolis, MNRelatively High · Tornado, Hail98.3$456MRelatively HighTornado, Hail$456M
- 36Sarasota, FLRelatively High · Hurricane, Riverine flood98.2$273MRelatively HighHurricane, Riverine flood$273M
- 37Columbus, OHRelatively High · Heat wave, Riverine flood98.1$331MRelatively HighHeat wave, Riverine flood$331M
- 38Sacramento, CARelatively High · Drought, Riverine flood98.1$352MRelatively HighDrought, Riverine flood$352M
- 39Pittsburgh, PARelatively High · Riverine flood, Strong wind98.1$354MRelatively HighRiverine flood, Strong wind$354M
- 40Cleveland, OHRelatively High · Tornado, Riverine flood98.0$282MRelatively HighTornado, Riverine flood$282M
- 41Baton Rouge, LARelatively High · Tornado, Hurricane98.0$267MRelatively HighTornado, Hurricane$267M
- 42Oklahoma City, OKRelatively High · Hail, Tornado97.9$298MRelatively HighHail, Tornado$298M
- 43Tulsa, OKRelatively High · Heat wave, Strong wind97.9$292MRelatively HighHeat wave, Strong wind$292M
- 44Austin, TXRelatively High · Tornado, Hail97.7$376MRelatively HighTornado, Hail$376M
- 45Buffalo, NYRelatively High · Riverine flood, Tornado97.7$286MRelatively HighRiverine flood, Tornado$286M
- 46Newark, NJRelatively High · Heat wave, Riverine flood97.7$214MRelatively HighHeat wave, Riverine flood$214M
- 47Birmingham, ALRelatively High · Tornado, Riverine flood97.6$262MRelatively HighTornado, Riverine flood$262M
- 48Indianapolis, INRelatively High · Tornado, Heat wave97.5$285MRelatively HighTornado, Heat wave$285M
- 49Anchorage, AKRelatively High · Earthquake, Wildfire97.4$367MRelatively HighEarthquake, Wildfire$367M
- 50Savannah, GARelatively High · Hurricane, Coastal flood97.4$277MRelatively HighHurricane, Coastal flood$277M
- 51Jacksonville, FLRelatively High · Hurricane, Riverine flood97.2$264MRelatively HighHurricane, Riverine flood$264M
- 52Nashville, TNRelatively High · Earthquake, Riverine flood97.2$262MRelatively HighEarthquake, Riverine flood$262M
- 53Jersey City, NJRelatively High · Heat wave, Riverine flood97.2$189MRelatively HighHeat wave, Riverine flood$189M
- 54Charlotte, NCRelatively High · Riverine flood, Tornado97.1$318MRelatively HighRiverine flood, Tornado$318M
- 55Little Rock, ARRelatively High · Tornado, Earthquake96.8$212MRelatively HighTornado, Earthquake$212M
- 56Reno, NVRelatively High · Earthquake, Wildfire96.7$274MRelatively HighEarthquake, Wildfire$274M
- 57Wichita, KSRelatively High · Tornado, Hail96.6$256MRelatively HighTornado, Hail$256M
- 58Corpus Christi, TXRelatively High · Hurricane, Heat wave96.6$186MRelatively HighHurricane, Heat wave$186M
- 59Kansas City, MORelatively High · Tornado, Hail96.5$251MRelatively HighTornado, Hail$251M
- 60Cincinnati, OHRelatively High · Tornado, Heat wave96.3$221MRelatively HighTornado, Heat wave$221M
- 61Lubbock, TXRelatively High · Strong wind, Hail96.2$214MRelatively HighStrong wind, Hail$214M
- 62Omaha, NERelatively High · Strong wind, Hail95.9$234MRelatively HighStrong wind, Hail$234M
- 63Atlanta, GARelatively High · Riverine flood, Tornado95.8$235MRelatively HighRiverine flood, Tornado$235M
- 64Raleigh, NCRelatively High · Hail, Riverine flood95.5$299MRelatively HighHail, Riverine flood$299M
- 65El Paso, TXRelatively High · Hail, Heat wave95.5$121MRelatively HighHail, Heat wave$121M
- 66Denver, CORelatively High · Hail, Tornado95.2$222MRelatively HighHail, Tornado$222M
- 67Baltimore, MDRelatively High · Heat wave, Strong wind95.0$136MRelatively HighHeat wave, Strong wind$136M
- 68Albuquerque, NMRelatively High · Earthquake, Riverine flood94.4$154MRelatively HighEarthquake, Riverine flood$154M
- 69Colorado Springs, CORelatively Moderate · Wildfire, Hail94.1$213MRelatively ModerateWildfire, Hail$213M
- 70Madison, WIRelatively Moderate · Hail, Tornado93.9$182MRelatively ModerateHail, Tornado$182M
- 71Rochester, NYRelatively Moderate · Riverine flood, Heat wave93.8$141MRelatively ModerateRiverine flood, Heat wave$141M
- 72Providence, RIRelatively Moderate · Heat wave, Riverine flood93.7$130MRelatively ModerateHeat wave, Riverine flood$130M
- 73Boston, MARelatively Moderate · Heat wave, Earthquake93.5$115MRelatively ModerateHeat wave, Earthquake$115M
- 74Greensboro, NCRelatively Moderate · Riverine flood, Hail93.4$135MRelatively ModerateRiverine flood, Hail$135M
- 75Chattanooga, TNRelatively Moderate · Tornado, Strong wind93.3$140MRelatively ModerateTornado, Strong wind$140M
- 76Columbia, SCRelatively Moderate · Strong wind, Tornado93.1$138MRelatively ModerateStrong wind, Tornado$138M
- 77Toledo, OHRelatively Moderate · Tornado, Hail92.4$111MRelatively ModerateTornado, Hail$111M
- 78Grand Rapids, MIRelatively Moderate · Strong wind, Tornado92.2$147MRelatively ModerateStrong wind, Tornado$147M
- 79Knoxville, TNRelatively Moderate · Earthquake, Tornado92.1$131MRelatively ModerateEarthquake, Tornado$131M
- 80Des Moines, IARelatively Moderate · Strong wind, Tornado92.0$138MRelatively ModerateStrong wind, Tornado$138M
- 81Lexington, KYRelatively Moderate · Tornado, Strong wind92.0$113MRelatively ModerateTornado, Strong wind$113M
- 82Akron, OHRelatively Moderate · Hail, Strong wind91.2$102MRelatively ModerateHail, Strong wind$102M
- 83Lincoln, NERelatively Moderate · Strong wind, Tornado90.7$115MRelatively ModerateStrong wind, Tornado$115M
- 84Spokane, WARelatively Moderate · Wildfire, Heat wave90.0$99MRelatively ModerateWildfire, Heat wave$99M
- 85Durham, NCRelatively Moderate · Heat wave, Tornado89.6$91MRelatively ModerateHeat wave, Tornado$91M
- 86Boise, IDRelatively Moderate · Wildfire, Heat wave87.8$116MRelatively ModerateWildfire, Heat wave$116M
- 87Norfolk, VARelatively Moderate · Hurricane, Heat wave81.2$46MRelatively ModerateHurricane, Heat wave$46M
- 88Richmond, VARelatively Low · Earthquake, Heat wave78.4$39MRelatively LowEarthquake, Heat wave$39M
- 89Virginia Beach, VARelatively Low · Heat wave, Hurricane57.9$31MRelatively LowHeat wave, Hurricane$31M
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (Counties), v1.20. Risk is the composite National Risk Index score (0-100 percentile vs all US counties); the rating is FEMA's own tier. Insurance commentary is PropHunt's interpretation, not a quote.
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